From the era of the great divergence to the era of the Great Convergence: mathematical modeling and forecasting of a long -term
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This book is devoted to the practical use of endogenous models of economic growth for long-term modeling and predicting the economic development of various groups of countries with high, medium and low income per capita in the industrial era (1820-2050) BRICS countries are allocated to a separate group.
The first part of the book sets out classic exogenous and endogenous models of economic growth, as well as modern models of calculating technical (technological) progress, which plays a key role in the economic development of any country. Models suitable for practical calculations of long -term technological and economic dynamics are distinguished. On the example of calculating the long -term dynamics of the global economy, the method of consistent posting refinements of technological progress developed by the author is outlined. The potential of NBIC technologies is calculated as the main source of economic growth until 2050. The restrictions are considered, due to the gradual depletion of hydrocarbon energy resources, as well as a new energy development strategy for the XXI century, which ensures environmental safety.
In the second part of the book, using the simplest AN-model of economic growth and the method of post-refineing technological progress (A), a two-century process of transition to the great divergence (XIX century and the first half of the XX century) is simulated, then-then- - from divergence to convergence (second half of the XX century) and, finally, --- to acceleration of convergence at the beginning of the XXI century. The forecast, calculated according to the model, shows that by 2050 a great convergence will take place, and the center of world production of goods and services will again move to China, India and other Asian countries, as was the case in the pre -industrial era.
The third part of the book analyzes the contours of the model of sustainable development of the global economy in the first half of the XXI century. Problems inhibiting the process of convergence, as well as the prospects for the further sustainable development of avant -garde countries of the developing world on the example of the BRICS countries, which today make the main contribution to the acceleration of convergence. Conditions are formulated that ensure the sustainable development of the world economy, as well as the mechanisms and strategy for sustainable growth in the first half of the 21st century
The first part of the book sets out classic exogenous and endogenous models of economic growth, as well as modern models of calculating technical (technological) progress, which plays a key role in the economic development of any country. Models suitable for practical calculations of long -term technological and economic dynamics are distinguished. On the example of calculating the long -term dynamics of the global economy, the method of consistent posting refinements of technological progress developed by the author is outlined. The potential of NBIC technologies is calculated as the main source of economic growth until 2050. The restrictions are considered, due to the gradual depletion of hydrocarbon energy resources, as well as a new energy development strategy for the XXI century, which ensures environmental safety.
In the second part of the book, using the simplest AN-model of economic growth and the method of post-refineing technological progress (A), a two-century process of transition to the great divergence (XIX century and the first half of the XX century) is simulated, then-then- - from divergence to convergence (second half of the XX century) and, finally, --- to acceleration of convergence at the beginning of the XXI century. The forecast, calculated according to the model, shows that by 2050 a great convergence will take place, and the center of world production of goods and services will again move to China, India and other Asian countries, as was the case in the pre -industrial era.
The third part of the book analyzes the contours of the model of sustainable development of the global economy in the first half of the XXI century. Problems inhibiting the process of convergence, as well as the prospects for the further sustainable development of avant -garde countries of the developing world on the example of the BRICS countries, which today make the main contribution to the acceleration of convergence. Conditions are formulated that ensure the sustainable development of the world economy, as well as the mechanisms and strategy for sustainable growth in the first half of the 21st century
Author:
Author:Акаев А.А.
Cover:
Cover:Hard
Category:
- Category:Politics & Social Science
- Category:Reference books
- Category:Social Science & Politics
Publication language:
Publication Language:Russian
Paper:
Paper:Offset
ISBN:
ISBN:978-5-9519-3619-6
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