How to catch a black swan? Why only some forecasts come true, and even then - rarely
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Most forecasts regarding the economy, politics, emergencies, and other areas fail due to incorrect assessment of probabilities under conditions of uncertainty. Often, we mistakenly take more confident forecasts for more accurate ones, and excessive confidence leads to failure. Only by deepening our understanding of randomness and uncertainty can we make our forecasts closer to the truth. Nate Silver, the founder and editor-in-chief of the FiveThirtyEight website, based on his innovative system for predicting sports and political outcomes, shows how to extract the true signal from a array of side data - informational "noise". Silver examines the most accurate forecasts in a wide range of fields: from natural disasters to pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from global warming to sports. He analyzes how the most successful forecasters think and what unites them. What is the reason for their success? Are they better equipped than others - or just lucky? What patterns do they reveal? And are their forecasts really true? Silver notes that the authors of the best forecasts excel in probability tools. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable and notice many small details that bring them closer to the truth. Thanks to a correct assessment of probabilities, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. Nate Silver's book, in many ways echoing the ideas of Nassim Taleb, helps to meet "black swans" with dignity and is equally significant for anyone dealing with big data and calculating scenarios of events.
Author:
Author:Silver N.
Cover:
Cover:hardcover
Category:
- Category:Politics & Social Science
Publication language:
Publication Language:russian
Paper:
Paper:offset
Dimensions:
Dimensions:24.5x17x3.8 cm
Series:
Series:Ideas that can change the world
Age restrictions:
Age restrictions:16+
ISBN:
ISBN:978-5-389-24994-3
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