Think slowly - predict for sure

The new work of Philip Tetlock, a well -known psychologist, a specialist in the field of politics, created in collaboration with the famous scientific journalist Dan Gardner, is already called the most important book about making decisions since the time of “think slowly - quickly "Daniel Kaneman”. On the huge, acute, urgent material of modern geopolitics, the authors study the reliability of a variety of forecasts - from political to domestic - and offer a practical and effective system of thinking, which will help to educate the ability to make forecasts that come true.
Correctly prioritize, break complex problems into a number of small and quite resolved, finding a balance between the look outside and inside the problem - these are just a few life hacks that will help you correctly predict the future!